WTI crude had seen little to no movement since Friday’s close, but failed at resistance this morning and is currently off $1/bbl. Oil futures continue to hover around the $49/bbl mark, while refined products RBOB and heating oil are -$.0163/gallon and -$.0227 respectively. Declining oil production (active U.S. oil rig counts were down 9 last week) had been supporting the price of WTI crude, which had north of a $4/bbl gain over the previous week and hit a multi-month high of $50.92/bbl. Short term bullish support also came from weakening USD values last Friday and Russian turmoil in Syria.
We are quickly approaching the time of year where all credible sources make their predictions and speculations about winter weather. DOE, EIA, Farmer’s Almanac, Weather Channel, NOAA, etc…, all try their best to prepare us for “possibly” the worst. However, according to an EIA publication regarding our geographic region, we can “expect lower heating expenditures this winter (October-March) compared with the past two winters.” They also forecasted that natural gas consumption will be down 11.3%, heating oil consumption will decline by 11.2%, and electricity usage will be down 5.9% throughout the course of the winter. Additionally, gasoline prices in the Northeast are speculated to decline to $2.03/gal by December.