2015 - 2016 Winter Weather Outlook

By: Matt Rosenberg / October 16, 2015

The oil market is slightly up this morning ahead of the Baker Hughes rig count due later this morning.  U.S. crude finished Thursday’s session at $46.38, the lowest since October 5th.  With the EIA reporting an increase of 7.6 million barrels in crude supplies yesterday, one analyst stated “while builds are typical this time of the year, this is a rather large build.”  The EIA also predicted the market would remain oversupplied through 2016 with another analyst stating that “even if crude prices go up now, we could be seeing Iranian crude coming back to the market, pushing it down again.  I think downward movement is more likely for the rest of the year.”  The spike in stockpiles came as refinery utilization fell 1.5% from the previous week.  Additional EIA data showed that gasoline stocks fell by 2.6 million barrels last week with distillates down by 1.5 million barrels.

In other market news, a meeting being held next week in Vienna with OPEC techies may shed some light on their plans with regards to future production levels.

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The 2015 U.S. Winter Outlook (December through February):

Precipitation Outlook:

·         Wetter-than-average conditions most likely in the Southern Tier of the United States, from central and southern California, across Texas, to Florida, and up the East Coast to southern New England. Above-average precipitation is also favored in southeastern Alaska.  

·         Drier-than-average conditions most likely for Hawaii, central and western Alaska, parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, and for areas near the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.

Temperature Outlook:

·         Above-average temperatures are favored across much of the West and the northern half of the contiguous United States. Temperatures are also favored to be above-average in Alaska and much of Hawaii. Below-average temperatures are most likely in the southern Plains and Southeast.

 

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Categories: Daily Market Update


Matt Rosenberg

Written by

Matt Rosenberg

As a key accounts manager, Matt helps large customers make mission-critical decisions by providing timely advice regarding market conditions.


Guttman Energy Daily Market Update Disclaimer – The information contained in this market update is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however this update could include technical inaccuracies or typographical errors and Guttman Energy does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of this update. FURTHERMORE, THIS UPDATE IS PROVIDED "AS IS," WHERE IS, WITH ALL FAULTS AND WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY OR CONDITION OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY. GUTTMAN ENERGY ALSO SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ALL EXPRESS AND IMPLIED WARRANTIES. YOU USE THIS UPDATE AT YOUR SOLE RISK. This update and any view or comment expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted in any way as recommendation or inducement to buy or sell products, commodity futures or options contracts.


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