Yesterday’s trading session ended with crude closing up $0.80/bbl to $45.23, RBOB up $0.0144/gal to $1.3632 and HO up $0.0204/gal to $1.4976. Last week, WTI was $0.60/bbl more expensive at $45.83, RBOB was $0.0532/gal more expensive at $1.4164, and HO was $0.0344/gal more expensive at $1.5320. Currently, WTI and both refined product futures are trading higher than yesterday’s settlement prices.
Reuter’s poll reduced 2016 Brent and WTI price forecasts from last month. The forecast reduced Brent $3.70/bbl to $58.60/bbl and WTI $2.90/bbl to $54.10/bbl.
The Chicago cash market continues to go up, as refinery turnarounds are expected to last until late October into early November. In addition, the BP Whiting refinery issues seem to be worse than expected. Yesterday, Chicago ULSD increased $0.0097 to $1.6167, while Chicago CBOB/RBOB increased $0.0633 to $1.7267 and $1.8567, respectively. When looking at the Chicago cash market compared to Gulf Coast, CBOB is $0.3775 higher and RBOB is $0.49 higher. With the cash market being up so much, there has also been a spike in the rack prices for the upper Midwest.
An update on Tropical Storm Joaquin: it is forecasted to turn into a hurricane, but is expected to head north and miss the Gulf Coast.
API data released last night show that U.S. crude inventories had a 4.6 million barrel build, however, there was a 1.15 million barrel draw in crude inventories for Cushing, OK. There was a build in gasoline of 3.3 million barrels and a build in distillates of 176,000 barrels. All API data 4except the distillate build was supported by the DOE numbers that were released this morning. The DOE statistics show crude inventories had a 4.0 million barrel build, with a draw of 1.1 million barrels in Cushing, OK. Gasoline inventories had a build of 3.3 million barrels and distillate inventories had a 267,000 barrel draw. Refinery utilization is down 1.1% from last week.