Another Leg Up?

By: Peter Haralambakis / August 1, 2017

As summer nears a close and kids finally muster up the courage to dive off the high dive, echoes of “Marco, Polo!” fade into the thumb tested winds, whilst the headwinds in the energy markets that were ever prevalent just a month ago seem to have slightly shifted into a tailwind going into the second half of the year.  WTI for September delivery closed above the $50 level for the first time in two months.  During that same period, Heating Oil and RBOB have both rallied about $0.30 each.  Technically, WTI just touched the short-term downward channel-top at $50.05.  A break out above the $50.05 level, should head to the next major resistance of $50.69 - $50.88.  Closing above those levels indicate a move towards $52.00 over the next several days.  Downside support sits around the 200 day moving average of $49.41.  Breaking below that level will most likely lead to $46.55 over the next two weeks.

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As of 11:55 am EST, we have already violated the 200 day moving average.  WTI is down $1.55 at $48.63, Heating Oil down $0.0387 at $1.6285, and RBOB down $0.0312 at $1.6454.  A preliminary Reuters’ poll showed U.S. crude inventories were forecast for the week ended 7/28/2017 to have fallen for a fifth straight week.  Crude is forecasted to draw 2.5 million barrels, Distillates to draw 200k, and Gasoline to draw 1.1 million barrels.  Will reduction in U.S. shipments, production caps for Nigeria and Libya, July monthly crude draw of around 26 million barrels, settlement above the 200-day moving average for the first time since May, and a Shell 400k bpd Dutch Pernis Oil Refinery shut down for at least a couple of weeks be enough to have WTI gain another leg up from these levels?  Or, will today’s API and tomorrow’s DOE stats depict another picture in the near term?  Only thing we can do is tread slowly towards the end of the diving board, take one quick look at the water and everyone cheering you on way down below, and…..SPLASH!

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Categories: Daily Market Update


Peter Haralambakis

Written by

Peter Haralambakis

Peter Haralambakis is a Supply and Trading Business Development Manager at Guttman Energy with over 13 years of experience in commodities trading, analysis, and risk management in products ranging from Corn and Soybeans to Crude Oil Futures and Options to Financial and Physical Biofuels to Natural Gas and Natural Gas Liquids.


Guttman Energy Daily Market Update Disclaimer – The information contained in this market update is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however this update could include technical inaccuracies or typographical errors and Guttman Energy does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of this update. FURTHERMORE, THIS UPDATE IS PROVIDED "AS IS," WHERE IS, WITH ALL FAULTS AND WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY OR CONDITION OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY. GUTTMAN ENERGY ALSO SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ALL EXPRESS AND IMPLIED WARRANTIES. YOU USE THIS UPDATE AT YOUR SOLE RISK. This update and any view or comment expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted in any way as recommendation or inducement to buy or sell products, commodity futures or options contracts.


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