As we move into the New Year, a question that is probably on the minds of many is: What is the outlook this year for oil supply and demand? It seems that demand will continue to be high, but likely less than 2015. 2015 global oil demand stood at 93.75 mbpd (million barrels per day) as a consensus figure from the IEA/EIA/OPEC reports, up 1.55 mbpd from 2014. Demand is estimated to grow by 1.29 mbpd this year to 95.04 mbpd.
Looking back upon 2015, we all know how bearish the market has been. From blogs about the global glut of crude to the possibility of more and more product entering the market, oversupply has been a repetitive topic for a while now. Non-OPEC supply, which jumped 1.06 mbpd to 57.87 in 2015, will fall to 57.52 mbpd in 2016, forecasters predict. The EIA sees U.S. domestic production declining by 570,000 bpd to 8.76 mbpd after gaining 630,000 bpd in 2015. Given the non-OPEC decrease in supply, this year is bound to be tighter than 2015. An interesting quote by Raymond James (an American diversified holding company) explains their outlook on 2016: “While it may take a couple of quarters to play out, we see clear evidence that global oil demand is already responding, and global oil supply is poised to slow enough to leave the market substantially undersupplied by the end of 2016, lasting through 2018."
A quick focus on today’s news as of 1pm E.T., shows diesel standing flat, gasoline is down -$.0358, and crude is down $-.87 cents.