Yesterday ended with crude closing down $0.44/bbl to $46.66, RBOB down $0.0271/gal to $1.3140 and HO down $0.0316/gal to $1.4708. Last week, WTI was $1.87/bbl more expensive at $48.53, RBOB was $0.1222/gal more expensive at $1.4362, and HO was $0.1407/gal more expensive at $1.6115. The API data will be released later today and the DOE stats will be released tomorrow due to the Columbus Day holiday.
Reuters has produced its own statistical estimates in lieu of the normal data releases. Reuters predicts a build in crude of 2.9 million barrels, distillate build of 100,000 barrels, and a draw in gasoline of 1.3 million barrels. They expect refinery capacity to remain flat in relation to the DOE numbers from last week.
Chicago cash market prices yesterday fell from Monday. Chicago diesel decreased by $0.0530/gal, CBOB by $0.1705/gal and RBOB by $0.2205/gal. Gasoline in Chicago had a significant drop due to resupply in PADD II, and it can be expected to see diesel prices fall over the next few days. However, even with the significant changes, Chicago still continues to be 20+ cents over New York and Gulf Coast cash markets.
Global oil demand is the highest since 2010, a result of the extremely low oil prices this past year. Demand growth this year was 1.8 million barrels a day, however for 2016 the IEA forecasts global demand growth to only be 1.2 million barrels a day.