As the chimes of ice cream trucks ring and the red, white, and blue “Firecracker” Popsicles drip down kid’s hands across the nation, we, in our air conditioned offices, absorb, yet again, another friendly DOE Weekly Petroleum Status Report that rallied WTI for August delivery to $47.19 before settling back down to $46.92 as of 12:40pm EST. Crude inventories fell by 4.7 million barrels last week compared with analysts’ estimates for a decrease of only 3.2 million barrels. Gasoline stocks declined for a fifth straight week, falling by 4.4 million barrels. Distillate stockpiles fell by 2.1 million barrels, vs expectations for a 1.2 million barrels increase. August RBOB is up 1.77% at $1.6069 and NY Harbor ULSD September futures are up 2.11% at $1.5471 butting up against some resistance levels which include an upper trend channel level of $1.556, a horizontal trend line at $1.55, and the 100 day moving average, which is just below current levels, at $1.5419.
As OPEC and non-OPEC members agreed to maintain supply cuts through the first quarter of next year, they have to again observe rising production from the U.S., reaching 9.43 million barrels a day. As the Saudis continue to empty their domestic crude tanks (16 out of the last 19 months) and Russia hints at continuing to work with OPEC to help rebalance oil markets, we, STILL, are in search for the answer to, “where will crude prices go next?” Until then, let there be ICE CREAM for all.