As “Auld Lang Syne” fades into the New Year and cone hats, glitter tiaras, and foil horns are cleaned up across the nation, we anxiously await and position ourselves for what the energy sector might bring us this upcoming year. Will it be another 12% gain in WTI spurred by strong demand and declining global inventories? Or, will U.S. production put a crimp in OPEC’s rebalancing act? As of 1pm EST, the markets are certainly undecided so early in the trading year. WTI for February delivery is down $0.12 at $60.30, HO is down $0.0060 at $2.0621, and RBOB is down $.0240 at $1.7718. If the “trend is your friend”, we would most likely continue our march higher in crude if WTI settles above $60.62 with eyes on the next major resistance level of $61.45.
If those major resistance levels hold, we should see a retracement back to the $54.19 - $56.52 region within several weeks. Pushing above $61.45 should accelerate the bullish dynamic into the remainder of the year with a $70 price level targeted within a few months. In the meantime, we shall continue to ride the rollercoaster of supply and demand with risk coming from all angles. All we can do is digest the relevant data and deflect the irrelevant noise and wait and see what the year has in store for the energy sector. For now, we await the APIs and DOEs this week (delayed because of the holidays) for any directional indication during these early trading days of 2018. Farewell 2017.