Yesterday, WTI crude finished up $1.34/bbl to $50.92, HO closed up $0.0297/gal to $1.7649, and RBOB finished up $0.0321/gal to $1.5915. Prices found support yesterday from the news that Saudi Arabia plans to cut November crude exports by 560,000 barrels/day in efforts to stabilize prices along with OPEC’s production cut until March 2018. Also helping boost oil prices is the weaker U.S. dollar.
The rally continued into today’s trading session as well. As of 10 AM both HO and RBOB are up about $0.0100/gal. There are two pieces of bullish news that could be the driver for higher prices today. First, a fire broke out at Delta’s Monroe Energy Refinery outside of Philadelphia. As a result, the refinery will be down for an undetermined amount of time shutting down 185,000 barrels/day. The cash markets should see a spike in prices as a result. Second, rhetoric around the La Nina winter that is expected this year, despite the mild fall thus far. If this holds true, the colder weather will help with heating oil demand.
Due to the Columbus Day holiday this Monday, the weekly U.S. oil inventory statistics are delayed a day. API statistics are due out later this afternoon and the DOE statistics will be out tomorrow at 11 a.m. ET.
Some important resistance levels to keep an eye on: $50.94 in WTI, $1.7888 in HO, and $1.5971 in RBOB. If the markets settle above these key 13 day moving averages respectively, it should be a signal for further strength in prices.