Yesterday, WTI crude closed up $0.66 to $54.06/bbl, HO closed up $0.0061 to $1.6425/gal, and RBOB finished down $0.0226 to $1.4940/gal. The March WTI contract expired yesterday, settling seven cents above the previous 2017 high settle. The rally yesterday was from the news that OPEC members are at 90% compliance on production cuts. Oil prices continue to be range-bound. Today, RBOB is the key contract to look at for indications to the next direction on prices. The RBOB support level is at $1.4862 and resistance level is $1.5315; if RBOB closes below support, it could indicate prices will go lower, but if it holds above, prices could go higher.
The mixed bearish and bullish news is what is keeping oil prices stuck in the range, however some bearish news this morning has the market off for both refined products and WTI crude. The biggest concern is the increase in inventories. Qatar’s oil minister stated non-OPEC members are not following through on the agreed cut of 588,000 barrels per day, but rather at only about 50% of that. Russia also is not meeting its agreement to cut 300,000 barrels per day. As of 10:45 a.m. ET, WTI is off $0.75, HO is off almost two cents, and RBOB is relatively flat.
The API statistics will be out this afternoon, and the DOE statistics will be out tomorrow morning at 11 a.m. ET. Both are delayed a day due to the Presidents Day holiday on Monday.