Punxsutawney Phil: Famous Groundhog by Day, Market Mover by Night?

By: Daniel Guttman / February 2, 2016

Which of the following Phils could influence the markets today? Dr. Phil? Phil Mickelson? Phil Collins? Phil Knight? Phil Jackson? Phil Esposito? None of the above. Punxsutawney Phil, nearly 100 miles north of our main office here in Belle Vernon, PA, could be the culprit. The timid little vermin did not see his shadow this morning and would you look at that, heating oil is dropping $.03 cents as of 11:30 AM ET. If Phil saw his shadow that would have indicated six more weeks of winter, but would that have strengthened the market? We will never know. So this leaves me with one question: Do you believe that the shadow (or lack thereof) of a groundhog in Punxsutawney, PA could influence the oil market? Take a second to think about what other unexpected events have swung the market in different directions in the past.

Along with heating oil, gas and crude are falling as of mid-day as well. Gasoline is down $.0550 and crude is down $1.06, approaching $30/bbl. Judging by the noisy bullish sentiment the market had last week, it seems that crude is missing the $20s like a 30-some year old misses being in their 20s. On a bearish note, OPIS has reported that OPEC output jumped to around 33 million b/d, its highest in years. The sharp increase is due to oil exports from top OPEC Gulf member Iran for the first time after years of sanctions, and sharp increases from others members, including Indonesia, Nigeria and Kuwait. Overall, U.S. crude oil inventories continue to approach the record-breaking 500 million bbl level, coming in at 494.9 million bbls for the week ending Jan. 22, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. This afternoon, the American Petroleum Institute will release its latest data, which is expected to show another build.

Non-Groundhog News

  • EIA data will be released tomorrow morning and one thing to focus on is gasoline demand. With drivers off of the road because of record-breaking snowfalls along the East Coast last week, the gasoline demand will likely be disappointing.
  • BP reports its worst annual loss ($6.48 B) in over 20 years, cuts more jobs.
  • PBF Energy seeks to restore “reduced” Delaware refinery ops; confirms coker work. This will be a return to a 212,000 barrel-a-day operation after the refinery had a power outage more than a week ago.0201settlecorrect.png


Categories: Daily Market Update

Daniel Guttman

Written by

Daniel Guttman

With a background in wholesale and commercial sales as well as pipeline scheduling, Daniel is currently the Manager, Business Development in the Card Access Fuels department. He is tasked to find new and innovative solutions to increase sales opportunities for the sales team while managing and evaluating internal department processes. He assists with day to day personnel management, customer data analysis, as well as the daily Pacific Pride inventory and pricing direction.

Guttman Energy Daily Market Update Disclaimer – The information contained in this market update is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however this update could include technical inaccuracies or typographical errors and Guttman Energy does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of this update. FURTHERMORE, THIS UPDATE IS PROVIDED "AS IS," WHERE IS, WITH ALL FAULTS AND WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY OR CONDITION OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY. GUTTMAN ENERGY ALSO SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ALL EXPRESS AND IMPLIED WARRANTIES. YOU USE THIS UPDATE AT YOUR SOLE RISK. This update and any view or comment expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted in any way as recommendation or inducement to buy or sell products, commodity futures or options contracts.


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