"Rhetoric Shmetoric"

By: Peter Haralambakis / February 20, 2018

As most of the nation gets a glimpse of what spring might bring with temperatures way above normal for February, energy sector market participants get a glimpse into, what seems to be the norm, yearlong bullish anticipatory rhetoric from OPEC and non-OPEC allies goosing the market whenever it gets its chance from now until there next meeting in Vienna this upcoming June.  The most recent headline for supportive prices comes from the United Arab Emirates’ energy minister stating that OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers will discuss extending their cooperation for many years beyond the current agreement of production cuts through the remainder of 2018 and avoid major market volatility for many years to come.  With OPEC delivering on more than 100% of the output cuts thus far and the continuation of above and beyond the production cut agreement, the WTI crude market is certainly geared up for the new normal range of $55 - $65 a barrel.  As of 1:30pm EST, WTI for April delivery is up $0.33 at $61.87, HO for April delivery is up $0.0199 at $1.9283, and RBOB for April delivery is up $0.0049 at $1.9369.

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With quite a few technical resistance levels under the current market, WTI is poised to head for its next major resistance level of $64.96.  However, failing to follow through the next couple of days and breaking below $61.46 should re-test the 100day EMA of 58.42 within several days.  For now we await the holiday delayed APIs tomorrow evening and Thursday morning’s DOEs for a glimpse into the supply and demand picture of our energy sector.  Until then, we shall absorb and decipher all of the bullish rhetoric that energy ministers shall throw at us until the next OPEC meeting and beyond.

Categories: Industry Update

Peter Haralambakis

Written by

Peter Haralambakis

Peter Haralambakis is a Supply and Trading Business Development Manager at Guttman Energy with over 13 years of experience in commodities trading, analysis, and risk management in products ranging from Corn and Soybeans to Crude Oil Futures and Options to Financial and Physical Biofuels to Natural Gas and Natural Gas Liquids.

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