Simon Says: Stay in the $30's. Do You Believe Simon?

By: Daniel Guttman / March 4, 2016

As the market continues to increase higher on crude, let us take a look back at February to discuss highs and lows. The low of the entire month was on February 11th, when crude fell to $26.05 a barrel. On that same day, crude reached a high of $27.48. Two weeks later crude hit a high of the month of $34.69. February brought a ton of market movements, but stuck in a range of $26-$34. Now for March.

We have had higher highs on crude every day since the start of the month, and now it is at a high of $35.94 as of noon ET. Why the surge today? The U.S. Dollar was strong at the beginning of the day, but now has fallen to 97.290, down -.311 after the U.S. employment report showed a large increase in nonfarm payrolls. Diesel is up $.04, gas is + $.0350, and crude is + $1.20 today as we head into the latter half of the day. One of the trading houses we work with had an interesting take on WTI crude: “WTI crude has mixed signals with a long term lower objective to $18.00, a short term higher objective to $ 43.00 and a very short term higher objective to $37.00.  WTI has been range bound and it is the breakout of this range that will determine its next big price move.  A trade of $37 will remove the long term lower objective and give a new long term higher objective of $53.00 – but a breakout lower with a trade of $28 will give a new long term lower objective all the way to $6.00.”

World News:

  • No time or date has been set for non-OPEC/OPEC producer meeting. Although, Russia’s energy minister has proposed that oil talks be held in Vienna between March 20 and April 1. 
  • Oil industry investment spending was cut over $100 billion last year reported by IEA.
  • Credit Suisse sees the potential of crude jumping to $50/bbl in May.
  • Chinese economy faces greater difficulties in 2016.real030316.png

 

 


Categories: Daily Market Update


Daniel Guttman

Written by

Daniel Guttman

With a background in wholesale and commercial sales as well as pipeline scheduling, Daniel is currently the Manager, Business Development in the Card Access Fuels department. He is tasked to find new and innovative solutions to increase sales opportunities for the sales team while managing and evaluating internal department processes. He assists with day to day personnel management, customer data analysis, as well as the daily Pacific Pride inventory and pricing direction.


Guttman Energy Daily Market Update Disclaimer – The information contained in this market update is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however this update could include technical inaccuracies or typographical errors and Guttman Energy does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of this update. FURTHERMORE, THIS UPDATE IS PROVIDED "AS IS," WHERE IS, WITH ALL FAULTS AND WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY OR CONDITION OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY. GUTTMAN ENERGY ALSO SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ALL EXPRESS AND IMPLIED WARRANTIES. YOU USE THIS UPDATE AT YOUR SOLE RISK. This update and any view or comment expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted in any way as recommendation or inducement to buy or sell products, commodity futures or options contracts.


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