The Bears Haven't Hibernated, Yet.

By: Daniel Guttman / October 20, 2015

Diesel, gasoline, and crude all fell yesterday, with crude dropping off over $1/bbl. WTI has now finished lower in five out of the last six sessions. So what caused this sharp fall? A couple of factors contributed to the bearish nature of the market yesterday. As stated in yesterday’s Fuel Matters post, the Chinese released their Q3 economic growth data, which showed no increase in their demand for oil. Reports of Iran increasing oil production by 500,000 bbl/day increase in their oil production less than a week after the lifting of sanctions also played a role in yesterday's price drop.
How about today’s market? Tuesday morning brought higher oil prices to start the day, but the news from yesterday seems to have influenced diesel and crude pricing as we hit 12:30 pm EDT. Gasoline remains bullish, up about $0.0140.
FYI: Today is the last trading day for November crude, which usually makes for volatile trading.

Global news:

  • Libya crude oil output has reached approximately 440,000 bpd according to the head of its National Oil Corporation.

  • Iraqi government forces took over the refinery town of Baiji from IS militants.

  • Exports of crude oil from Angola are set to rise marginally in December to around 1.8 mbpd.

  • OPEC and non-OPEC experts (not the OPEC ministers) will hold a special meeting in Vienna on Wednesday (Reports state that Venezuela wants to push for cuts in production in an attempt to increase the price of crude to $70-$100/bbl, but other powers like Russia and Saudi Arabia want to squash that idea).

 rig

 

According to Baker Hughes, in the week ending October 16, 2015, the U.S. rig count decreased by ten, while the natural gas rig count increased by three. Crude oil rigs have continued to decrease weekly for the last two months. This is important to take note of because if this trend reverses and rig counts rise, there could be a jump in production.

102015


Daniel Guttman

Written by

Daniel Guttman

With a background in wholesale and commercial sales as well as pipeline scheduling, Daniel is currently the Manager, Business Development in the Card Access Fuels department. He is tasked to find new and innovative solutions to increase sales opportunities for the sales team while managing and evaluating internal department processes. He assists with day to day personnel management, customer data analysis, as well as the daily Pacific Pride inventory and pricing direction.


Guttman Energy Daily Market Update Disclaimer – The information contained in this market update is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however this update could include technical inaccuracies or typographical errors and Guttman Energy does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of this update. FURTHERMORE, THIS UPDATE IS PROVIDED "AS IS," WHERE IS, WITH ALL FAULTS AND WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY OR CONDITION OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY. GUTTMAN ENERGY ALSO SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ALL EXPRESS AND IMPLIED WARRANTIES. YOU USE THIS UPDATE AT YOUR SOLE RISK. This update and any view or comment expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted in any way as recommendation or inducement to buy or sell products, commodity futures or options contracts.


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