To Stay or To Leave. That is the Question

By: Daniel Guttman / June 20, 2016

Last week we mentioned the impending vote about whether Britain will stay or leave the EU, otherwise known as “Brexit.” Being that the vote is slated for this Thursday, it is unsurprisingly effecting the market today. Opinions have grown stronger this morning in favor of the UK remaining part of the EU, which has the US Dollar index tumbling lower and in turn has the crude market strengthening. WTI has gained $1.34 this morning to $49.32, and both refined products RBOB and HO are up $.0596 and $.0382 respectively.

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Big business is clearly in favor of Britain staying in the EU because of the ease and ability to move products, people, and of course money around the EU and around the world. If the Leave Party prevails, a Brexit will indeed have an effect on the oil market, however it may only be small and short-lived. A short term wave of risk-aversion will shower the market immediately upon a Brexit, according to CNBC, which is bearish for crude oil. However, the global crude market, in recent weeks, has portrayed signs of re-balancing. Global demand is believed to be chipping away at the supply gut, which would likely over-power any hiccup resulting from a Brexit.

In other news:

  • Investors reduce bets of rising oil prices as Canadian oil sands production continues to ramp up as fires diminish. The IEA believes Canadian output will return to normal by the middle of July.
  • Baker Hughes reported last Friday another weekly increase (9 rigs) which brings the total online number to 337.
  • Vladimir Putin is contemplating selling part of Rosneftegaz OJSC, an oil gas and coal company headquartered in Moscow, to China and India for nearly $11 billion.
  • Chicago Spot market RBOB, as well as CBOB, has been taken on a rollercoaster ride over the past 15 sessions. After peaking roughly 50cts/gal over the NYMEX on June 8th, it has come off nearly 37 cts/gal. A true sign that regional supply issues are dissolving.

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Categories: Daily Market Update


Daniel Guttman

Written by

Daniel Guttman

With a background in wholesale and commercial sales as well as pipeline scheduling, Daniel is currently the Manager, Business Development in the Card Access Fuels department. He is tasked to find new and innovative solutions to increase sales opportunities for the sales team while managing and evaluating internal department processes. He assists with day to day personnel management, customer data analysis, as well as the daily Pacific Pride inventory and pricing direction.


Guttman Energy Daily Market Update Disclaimer – The information contained in this market update is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however this update could include technical inaccuracies or typographical errors and Guttman Energy does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of this update. FURTHERMORE, THIS UPDATE IS PROVIDED "AS IS," WHERE IS, WITH ALL FAULTS AND WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY OR CONDITION OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY. GUTTMAN ENERGY ALSO SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ALL EXPRESS AND IMPLIED WARRANTIES. YOU USE THIS UPDATE AT YOUR SOLE RISK. This update and any view or comment expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted in any way as recommendation or inducement to buy or sell products, commodity futures or options contracts.


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