If the quote "the trend is your friend" isn't the true narrative of the energy complex over the past 20 trading days, I'm not sure what other phrase may be used to depict exactly what we have witnessed. WTI crude for August delivery has had a 20.15% rally from its lows on June 12th to its highs on July 11th with only seven opportunities to buy lower on the day and watch it rally over the following days.
According to a survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, the cost of profitably drilling a shale oil well in the US has fallen to a modern low of $50 per barrel, likely ensuring the growth of the onshore shale industry for years to come. The decrease reflects many factors including softer demand from refineries and concerns about the US-China trade war’s impact on global economic demand. The US oil benchmark is currently hovering near $63 per barrel. Cost reductions and increasing production should stop crude oil prices from rising to high.
After a sharp rally to begin the year, oil prices have been trading in a tight range over the past two weeks and are waiting for their next cue to determine price direction.
Wood Mackenzie (WoodMac), a global energy, chemicals, renewables, metals and mining researching and consulting firm, states companies need to raise investment into new production by 20%. Oil and gas companies need to increase annual investment before a supply demand in 2025. The investment could reach about $600 billion to ensure companies sustain production and growth for impending demand.