President Trump recently threatened to tax, nearly $300 billion dollars of Chinese products, by 10%. The already volatile oil market, seems to have room for some extra volatility. The volatility would largely cycle around China’s response to the U.S. tariffs. If China responds by purchasing oil from Iran, analysts speculate crude could rapidly approach $30 per barrel. Trump could impose the sanctions on the Chinese imports as soon as September 1st. Trump also threatened that he could raise the tariff, if no progress has been made towards a trade deal.
According to reports, Iran is quickly going to breach the Uranium-stockpile limit set by the current nuclear deal. President Hassan Rouhani of Iran has already warned that a new deal needed to be in action by Sunday June 7, 2019 or the Islamic Republic will increase enrichment of Uranium. Globally, there is much concern with the growth rate of Iran’s uranium cache, because they are just a step away from weapon-grade levels of uranium.
President Trump stated Thursday night that the United States would begin a series of escalating tariffs on all Mexican imports beginning June 10th, unless Mexico and United States lawmakers take immediate steps to stop the flow of illegal immigration into the United States. The tariffs on imports would start at 5% in June and increase to 15% by August 1st, then to 20% by September 1st and then raised to 25% by October 1st.
The oil market is mixed this morning as it continues to look for direction and weighs the same news items of the past few months. Those issues continue to be OPEC cuts, U.S. / China trade dispute, concern over a global economic slowdown and increasing U.S. crude production.
The U.S. and China conclude their two-day trade talks in Beijing today with President Trump tweeting this morning “Talks with China are going very well!” This tweet and word that China had their top trade official, Liu He, attend the talks early this week have boosted equity and oil markets along with it as February WTI trades higher today to $49.42/barrel despite growing U.S. oil production.