Viva Volatility

By: Peter Haralambakis / July 17, 2018

Causes of oil price fluctuations come in many forms, but the past 20 day 30% swing can fall squarely on the shoulders of uncertainty.  With uncertainty comes volatility. 

CL Continuation-31

Uncertainty of how much oil the Saudis and the Russians will produce to fill the supply disruptions from Iran sanctions and Venezuelan economic collapse.  Uncertainty surrounding the Iran sanctions in the form of potential waivers for countries that need more time to wind down imports from Iran.  Uncertainty from what effects the U.S. – China tariff tit for tat “trade war” may have on economies worldwide.  Uncertainty of Syncrude Canada ramping up their production of synthetic crude oil from oil sands in a quick and reasonable time frame.  Uncertainty of whether the White House would tap into the SPR (Strategic Petroleum Reserves) to relieve some of the potential inventory disruptions.  All of the above uncertainty has obfuscated the near-term outlook for oil fundamentals.  Global inventories are low and global oil demand remains robust.  For now we can only digest what data is provided to us through DOE’s weekly petroleum status update.  Estimates are as follows:

US EIA WEEKLY CRUDE STOCKS                -3.622M




Categories: Industry Update

Peter Haralambakis

Written by

Peter Haralambakis

Peter Haralambakis is a Supply and Trading Business Development Manager at Guttman Energy with over 13 years of experience in commodities trading, analysis, and risk management in products ranging from Corn and Soybeans to Crude Oil Futures and Options to Financial and Physical Biofuels to Natural Gas and Natural Gas Liquids.

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