What Goes Up... Must Come Down?

By: Greg Gill / February 21, 2017

To no surprise, the world of oil seems to be primarily focused on where prices are headed next. Since oil prices have been range-bound for quite some time now, the question at hand is, can we expect to see significant upside/downside in the market, or will crude be stuck in limbo between $50-60 indefinitely?

 What Do We Know?

  • Bullish pressure: OPEC’s rhetoric regarding production cuts is helping hold the current price floor
    • OPEC rhetoric / production data has counter-acted any major bearish sediment in the marketplace
    • When news of increased drilling / production comes, OPEC seems to find a way to keep prices from falling significantly below current levels
  • Bearish pressure: Rig count continues to climb in the United States. This means more production, which in turn can bring excess product to market
    • Despite excess product continuing to build in the market, the bears are having a tough time keeping the bulls in their respective stables

 What are The Expects Saying?

  • Crude could rise to $70 per barrel by end of year (Citibank)
  • Shale play in the U.S. is setting the price ceiling / OPEC is setting the price floor (Bloomberg)
  • Crude could fall to $30 per barrel, if OPEC does not extend production cuts (ABN Amro Bank)

What Else Is Good to Know?

  • Futures Trading (NY) is trading within tightest range in 13 years
  • Brent Crude volatility is nearing the lowest point in 2 years


Categories: Daily Market Update

Greg Gill

Written by

Greg Gill

I’m passionate about fully understanding my customers’ fuel operations and the fuel markets in which they operate. I want them to view me as their fuel expert. To develop strong, trusting partnerships with customers, I have to provide them with meaningful and timely information to ease the challenges of making smart fuel decisions, allowing them to focus on their core business.

Guttman Energy Daily Market Update Disclaimer – The information contained in this market update is derived from sources believed to be reliable; however this update could include technical inaccuracies or typographical errors and Guttman Energy does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or reliability of this update. FURTHERMORE, THIS UPDATE IS PROVIDED "AS IS," WHERE IS, WITH ALL FAULTS AND WITHOUT ANY WARRANTY OR CONDITION OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS, IMPLIED OR STATUTORY. GUTTMAN ENERGY ALSO SPECIFICALLY DISCLAIMS ALL EXPRESS AND IMPLIED WARRANTIES. YOU USE THIS UPDATE AT YOUR SOLE RISK. This update and any view or comment expressed herein are provided for informational purposes only and should not be interpreted in any way as recommendation or inducement to buy or sell products, commodity futures or options contracts.


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