Will Stats Bring It Right Back?

By: Greg Gill / June 27, 2017

Oil prices are on the rise this morning, as traders make their moves in advance of API stats. The expectation is that crude oil and gasoline will show a decrease in inventories from last week. Distillates on the other hand are thought by some to be on the rise (Reuters).

Some analysts are estimating that crude oil has decreased 2.3 million barrels, give or take. Some wonder why the market is not in the green even more so this morning, given the bullish prediction for statistics tonight/ tomorrow (A.P.I. / D.O.E.). To those who are curious why the oil markets aren’t jumping up a large amount quite yet, I will be glad to shed some light.

Reason why market is only up slightly this morning:

  1. Statistics- Due to come out tonight/ tomorrow
  2. Supply- Supply glut lingers
  3. Nigeria and Libya - Oil production is increasing
    1. Libya's oil production - Rose from 885,000 to 935,000 bpd last week
    2. Nigeria's exports in August - Predicted to achieve their highest level since March of 2016 (2 million bpd)
  4. Fuel demand - Still relatively weak compared to supply
  5. Rig counts/U.S. Production - Showing no signs of weakness

As of 10:00 a.m., distillates and RBOB are up approximately 1.5 cents, while WTI Crude is sitting slightly below the $44 threshold. If statistics shows big draws on crude and/or refined products, it will be interesting to see how the market reacts. The market has been on the downtrend for weeks now, let’s wait and see if it starts to bounce back.

Categories: Daily Market Update

Greg Gill

Written by

Greg Gill

I’m passionate about fully understanding my customers’ fuel operations and the fuel markets in which they operate. I want them to view me as their fuel expert. To develop strong, trusting partnerships with customers, I have to provide them with meaningful and timely information to ease the challenges of making smart fuel decisions, allowing them to focus on their core business.

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