Yesterday, WTI crude closed down $0.21 to $48.03/bbl, HO closed up $0.0018 to $1.5263/gal, and RBOB finished up $0.0133 to $1.4098/gal. As of 9:15 a.m. ET this morning, the market is off across the board; WTI crude is down $0.055/bbl, HO is down $0.0050/gal and RBOB is down $0.0085/gal. However, refined products reversed at 9:40 a.m. and are both trading up between $0.0050 and $0.01. The market is very volatile surrounding all the contradictory news out there around oil production.
The API statistics released last night showed:
Crude inventories: -1.3 million barrels (Cushing: -140,000 barrels)
Gasoline: +2.7 million barrels
Distillates: -350,000 barrels
Goldman Sachs released a three-month forecast for WTI crude and its analysts believe it to be $55/bbl. However, the biggest market driver right now is the talks surrounding the OPEC meeting on November 30th. The OPEC committee is expected to propose a production cut of 4-4.5% for all OPEC members except Nigeria and Libya. Russia, the leading non-OPEC producer, has not been invited to the OPEC meeting next week but is reportedly in favor of a freeze versus a cut.
The DOE statistics released this morning showed:
Crude inventories: -1.3 million barrels (Cushing: -87,000 barrels)
Gasoline: +2.3 million barrels
Distillates: +327,000 barrels
The DOE statistics were very similar to the API statistics for the first time in quite some time. Even after the DOEs, HO and RBOB futures remain up between $0.0050 and $0.01 as of 11 a.m. ET. We now await the outcome of the OPEC meeting.
Have a happy, healthy, and safe Thanksgiving from everyone here at Guttman Energy! Our offices are closed tomorrow, November 24th but open on Friday, November 25th. Markets in the U.S. are closed Thursday and Friday, but the electronic market will remain open on a limited schedule.