A big story in the coming days will be the arrival of winter weather with colder than normal temperatures in much of the country.
- This weekend winter storm Benji kicks off the weather pattern with snow and ice from the Southeast, Midwest and Northeast. Then cold air sweeps in.
- This pattern will "spark" diesel and heating oil demand throughout these regions. With temps this cold expect possible utility natural gas curtailment for large industrial customers and DYED .15 PPM ULSD demand for power generation. When those two things happen regional supplies fly out of terminals.
- The risk of the above scenario is a basis blowout in the physical market. A few short years ago saw the polar vortex move Pittsburgh ULSD rack prices go $0.40 over the front month heating oil futures contract.
- My advice is don't get caught short. What's your supply strategy? Talk to your Guttman Energy professional about locking in a heating oil and ULSD basis at current values. This strategy offers security of supply and allows customers to trigger heating oil and diesel fuel as the market moves.