WTI Whimper

By: Peter Haralambakis / July 31, 2018

With all the noisy headlines that have been peppering the newswires this past month; Iran sanctions, Iran waivers, OPEC crude oil output, Russian crude oil output, Norwegian oil workers on strike, Syncrude power outage, U.S. – China trade wars, U.S. – E.U. trade wars, Nafta talks, Libyan export resumption, EIA output view increase to 12 mil barrels for 2019, and Houthi rebels firing missiles at Saudi VLCCs; WTI crude oil is on track to close the month out with a whimper, no major headlines swaying it one way or another, and down 6.85% or $5.08/bbl. Since the beginning of this, most impressive, bull market run in June of 2017, only 4 out the 14 months has WTI settled down for the month.  At a quick glance the WTI monthly continuation chart isn’t ready to turn over quite yet.  It has been trading above the 200day exponential moving average for the past 7 months and all the momentum is still leaning on a “no room for error”, inventory tight, geopolitical driving force trend.

CL Monthly Continuation

Below are the Reuters Poll estimates for the upcoming DOE Petroleum Status Report:


For now we can only wait, digest the fundamentals and absorb all the volatility that an end of month and light volume month (August) trade can bring us.

Categories: Industry Update

Peter Haralambakis

Written by

Peter Haralambakis

Peter Haralambakis is a Supply and Trading Business Development Manager at Guttman Energy with over 13 years of experience in commodities trading, analysis, and risk management in products ranging from Corn and Soybeans to Crude Oil Futures and Options to Financial and Physical Biofuels to Natural Gas and Natural Gas Liquids.

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