With all the noisy headlines that have been peppering the newswires this past month; Iran sanctions, Iran waivers, OPEC crude oil output, Russian crude oil output, Norwegian oil workers on strike, Syncrude power outage, U.S. – China trade wars, U.S. – E.U. trade wars, Nafta talks, Libyan export resumption, EIA output view increase to 12 mil barrels for 2019, and Houthi rebels firing missiles at Saudi VLCCs; WTI crude oil is on track to close the month out with a whimper, no major headlines swaying it one way or another, and down 6.85% or $5.08/bbl. Since the beginning of this, most impressive, bull market run in June of 2017, only 4 out the 14 months has WTI settled down for the month. At a quick glance the WTI monthly continuation chart isn’t ready to turn over quite yet. It has been trading above the 200day exponential moving average for the past 7 months and all the momentum is still leaning on a “no room for error”, inventory tight, geopolitical driving force trend.
Below are the Reuters Poll estimates for the upcoming DOE Petroleum Status Report:
For now we can only wait, digest the fundamentals and absorb all the volatility that an end of month and light volume month (August) trade can bring us.