TRADE WARS! TANKER GATE! IRANIAN SANCTIONS! MIDDLE EAST UNSTABLE! MIDDLE EAST PEACE! VENEZUELA SANCTIONS! INVENTORIES UP! INVENTORIES DOWN! REFINERY OUTAGES! PRODUCTION DOWN! PRODUCTION UP! CRUDE CHASES $50!
CRUDE RUNS UP TO $60!
WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?
As we trudge through the era of micro-blogging and social networking intertwined with current global market volatility, we must rely on technical analysis now more than ever. Below is a sneak peek into a 1 year continuation chart of WTI crude oil with support and resistance levels that are at the fore in regard to potential near term price direction.
As we head into the month of August, the New York Mercantile Exchange front month futures shifts to September. When we think of September we think of the fall and the seasonal changes to gasoline specifications. While the price spread between the expiring August contract (summer grade) and the October contract (reflecting higher reid vapor pressure) is over $0.20 per gallon. Will the market prices go down as the spread suggests?
If the quote "the trend is your friend" isn't the true narrative of the energy complex over the past 20 trading days, I'm not sure what other phrase may be used to depict exactly what we have witnessed. WTI crude for August delivery has had a 20.15% rally from its lows on June 12th to its highs on July 11th with only seven opportunities to buy lower on the day and watch it rally over the following days.