We are a mere 7 days into a new year, and have already seen the first oil rally in the markets. Many factors have played a role in the first rally of the new year. Oil has been tumultuous over the last 11 months but has seen some stability and positivity since Biden’s election win in November. Biden was confirmed by the senate to be the 46th President of the United States of America and he will have a democratic controlled House and Senate to put his plans into action.
For the 2021 calendar year, there will be 5.8 million barrels per day crude production cuts. These cuts are an effort to balance the current oversupply due to COVID-19 with an estimated demand forecast for the year.
As the votes roll in for the presidential election, another important vote took place yesterday. In California, residents voted on Prop 22. According to Business Insider, “Proposition 22 is a November ballot measure that aims to exempt ride-sharing and food-delivery firms from AB5, a California gig worker law that forces Uber and Lyft to classify their drivers as employees.” After an enormous effort by “Gig Firms” to prevent AB5 from impacting their workforce the votes are in. According to Transportation Topics, “Uber, Lyft and other app-based ride-hailing and delivery services spent $200 million in a winning bet to circumvent California lawmakers and the courts to preserve their business model by keeping drivers from becoming employees eligible for benefits and job protections. The titans of the so-called gig economy bankrolled the most expensive ballot measure in state history, which was decided Nov. 3 with 58% of more than 11 million voters choosing to keep drivers classified as independent contractors able to set their own hours.” This landmark decision has enabled these companies to remain in California without having to re-label their drivers as employees.
On Thursday, a California appears court upheld a state order that ride sharing companies, Uber and Lyft are required to treat their drivers in California as employees instead of independent contractors. The ruling from the court comes less than two weeks before voters in the state of California will be asked to vote on Proposition 22 on November 3rd. Proposition 22 classifies app-based drivers as independent contractors instead of employees and provides independent contractor drivers other compensation, unless certain criteria are met.
The US election is a mere 3 weeks away and most experts agree that oil will remain on steady ground until after the election is decided. Covid-19, renewables, and consumer behaviors have brought crude to the brink several times since March. The US Shale industry has been forced to endure the worst market conditions in crude history over the past 6 months. Most recently, crude has spiked and leveled off several times in the last couple weeks, but analysts believe it should remain trading between $40-$43/bbl through the election.