We are a mere 7 days into a new year, and have already seen the first oil rally in the markets. Many factors have played a role in the first rally of the new year. Oil has been tumultuous over the last 11 months but has seen some stability and positivity since Biden’s election win in November. Biden was confirmed by the senate to be the 46th President of the United States of America and he will have a democratic controlled House and Senate to put his plans into action.
Last night marked the first presidential debate of 2020, and it was interesting to say the least. 69% of people in a CBS poll said they were “annoyed with the event”. During the debate both candidates threw insults and repeatedly interrupted each other while Chris Wallace tried to control the conversation.
As many of us are focused on our plans for the Thanksgiving holiday, we need to be aware of market-moving headlines in December that could create a volatile price market – similar to last year. Let’s review some of the events which could present an opportunity to take advantage of market movement and protect your fuel budgets.
Another commodity trading year is upon us and New Year’s resolutions across the western hemisphere are cloaked with purpose and resoluteness. Many have vowed to exercise more, eat healthy and save money. Even though only about 8 percent of these New Year’s resolution ambitionists persevere with their said goals, it is nonetheless a feeling of excitement and optimism of what might be. Market participants in the energy sector are most likely seeking that same sensation of excitement for less volatility and more stable prices, more clarity in supply/demand across the globe, transparency with trade talks/tariffs, pellucidity with Iran sanctions and possibly a reverse course in actions to avoid a further global slowdown or even a recession. If, however, the first 2 trading days of 2019 for the WTI futures contract for February delivery price action is any indication of what lies ahead, we are in for more of the same rollercoaster ride of uncertainty, high volatility and event risk price movements. The first trading day of the year brought on an intraday range of $3.43 a barrel or a 7.18% intraday move. Today, as of 12:30pm EST, we have already seen a 4.51% move or a $2.14 a barrel intraday trading range.
Come this time next week, 2018 will be in the rear-view mirror and we will be looking ahead to what 2019 has to offer us. Before we officially close that book, let us look back at the roller coaster of a year that the oil markets has endured. A bit of a reminder that no one can really predict what is to come.