Much like some of the most daunting roller coasters in the world, crude oil has provided adrenaline building hill climbs, steep drops, twists, and turns. Historically, you will be hard pressed to find a more erratic fuel market than the one we have witnessed over the past few months. COVID-19 has sparked drastic demand destruction, the warm winter months have curtailed heating oil demand, wet seasons are delaying farming, and OPEC+ cannot seem to agree on the production levels of crude to help negate the excessive supply on a global scale.
After the NYMEX started the morning slightly down and flat, RBOB and HO futures are now mixed as geopolitical news continues to be digested throughout the world. The top three issues impacting commodity prices continue to be the upcoming Iranian oil export sanctions in which there are conflicting reports as to the lost daily volume thus far, the recent murder of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi and the ongoing trade dispute between the U.S. and China.
On May 22nd WTI Crude nearly reached $73 / barrel and since then prices have dipped almost 10%.
Trading is tepid today after bullish geopolitical news sparked weekly gains across the board. Technically, the market is extremely overbought, but the computers may be apprehensive to sell until any of the following issues are resolved.