The country of Venezuela has battled through tumultuous times under United States sanctions, a poor refining network has caused gasoline shortages as well as political and social upheaval. Another country that has also been under similar scrutiny and sanctions from the United States for comparison is Iran. Over the past month, Iran has sent dozens of plane loads to Venezuela, consisting of equipment and chemicals necessary to produce gasoline as well as technicians to help jumpstart the dilapidated refineries of the South American country. In addition, five Iranian tankers are currently in route to Venezuela to help improve the growing shortage of gasoline that as of last month had consumers paying close to $8 per gallon.
Recent drone attacks have wreaked havoc on the Saudi Aramco oil facilities along with imposed sanctions on Venezuela and Iran. These events should all be pointing one direction for the crude prices…..up. Instead of the anticipated price increase, the recent fear of recession has helped keep the market in check.
President Trump recently threatened to tax, nearly $300 billion dollars of Chinese products, by 10%. The already volatile oil market, seems to have room for some extra volatility. The volatility would largely cycle around China’s response to the U.S. tariffs. If China responds by purchasing oil from Iran, analysts speculate crude could rapidly approach $30 per barrel. Trump could impose the sanctions on the Chinese imports as soon as September 1st. Trump also threatened that he could raise the tariff, if no progress has been made towards a trade deal.