The oil complex is trading much higher this morning due to a flurry of bullish headlines: increased chances of a federal stimulus package, weaker dollar, oil strikes in Norway, and the development of Tropical Storm Delta.
President Trump announced last week that he will be issuing a Presidential Permit for a freight railway project that will run from Alberta, Canada to Alaska, called A2A Railway. The project will cost $22 billion and will transport a variety of commodities such as oil and iron ore, as well as other container goods. The rail line will run close to 1,600 miles (2,570 kilometers) from Anchorage, Alaska through Yukon and Northwest Territories into northern Alberta.
The COVID-19 pandemic has been particularly tough on the oil industry, and it appears as though the impacts will be felt well beyond the immediate future. According to BloombergNEF, peak fuel demand will come sooner than previously predicted, with gasoline demand peaking in 2030 and on road diesel demand peaking shortly after in 2033. While there are other factors in play, COVID-19 certainly appears to be expediting the process.
Just last week, India was hit with the 1st cyclone of the season. Cyclone Amphan struck West Bengal directly wiping out any structure within reach. Amphan’s path of destruction included farmland, schools, businesses, and homes. 10 million people have been affected and 500,000 have lost their homes due to the cyclone. This storm is especially unique because India has recently been on “lockdown” of sorts due to the COVID-19 pandemic. A disaster like this is forcing the intermingling of people that have previously been practicing the social distancing concept to flatten the COVID-19 curve. 3 million people were successfully evacuated prior to the storm, but the balance would rather try to fight off mother nature instead of being confined in a small space. It was a true case of “pick your poison”.