For the 2021 calendar year, there will be 5.8 million barrels per day crude production cuts. These cuts are an effort to balance the current oversupply due to COVID-19 with an estimated demand forecast for the year.
News of the Pfizer vaccine is spreading like wildfire around the world today. Covid-19 has killed more than 1.2 million people the world over. Today, Pfizer announced a vaccine that has a 90% effective rate with no serious safety concerns. If these numbers are to hold true, Pfizer’s new vaccine would hold up to the childhood disease vaccines like measles. Additionally, Pfizer says it expects to have 15 to 20 million vaccines ready in the US by year’s end provided the FDA issue emergency authorization later this month. They also predict to have over 100 million doses ready worldwide.
The most recent WTI drop of 2.9% is the largest in a month. Supply versus demand continues to be a curious topic that is the main driver of the current crude oil situation. Oversupply of crude oil in 2020 continues as just in the past few days in the North Sea there are a combined 12 cargoes that have yet to find a buyer suggesting slow demand is taking place in the region.
OPEC+ reached an agreement to cut 9.7 million barrels per day (mb/d) beginning in May which is a record-breaking cut, but it still may not be enough to stabilize the market. U.S. Secretary of Energy Dan Brouillette said that the total number of cuts globally, when you add in all the non-OPEC countries, should be closer to 20 mb/d. In reality, the number is much smaller than that and will still have an impact, even if it’s not the cut some were expecting. The cuts will help prevent a complete meltdown, even if there is no immediate price rally. The deal is expected to stabilize the global oil price and reduce the market volatility according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.